In the year 1993, 400 plus Afghan insurgents who were linked with Hezb-e-Islami party of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar were said to be present in Kashmir. The reason behind this sudden surge was the withdrawal of the USSR combat forces from Afghanistan in 1989 and the ulterior motive of Pakistan to start a proxy war in Kashmir. They directed the Afghan terror warriors to Kashmir to create an unrest situation and also started an unreal movement in Kashmir with a camouflage name of “fight for Islam”. The Pakistani Intelligence (ISI) targeted the disgruntled youth of Kashmir in their favor, as a result of which the Security Forces had to take over the situation from the civil administration. The Security forces took several years to bring the situation in Kashmir under control. This was only achieved by decrease in the insurgent movements by active deployment of forces along the line of control and also by increasing the surveillance along the fence, thus involving in active counter infiltration and also the deployment of Rashtriya Rifles Regiments for counter terrorism role in the valley since 1990.
After the sudden retraction of US forces from Afghanistan, Taliban did not waste any time and captured almost complete Afghanistan from the Afghan National forces. It was like there was no fight and the Afghan national forces fled before the Taliban forces reached the main cities of Afghanistan without any resistance in 72 hours after the US left the country. The only sour point for Talibani forces left was the Panjshir valley which is controlled by the Northern Alliance. This time, the Taliban forces not only had their sheer will to fight but also the arms, ammunition, armed vehicles and numerous mil resources left by the US Forces who left in a hurry. The Taliban forces have come in more powerful but with a different thought process and tactics of bilateral talks with various nations in the world. Only times will tell whether it’s a real shift of thoughts or a camouflage tactics for their original ideology. Taliban has come in power after 20 long years and now is focusing more on improving its image globally. The shifting of Taliban fighters from Afghanistan to Kashmir will not go unnoticed by the world powers and it may jeopardies their image and again would get inclined towards a terrorist organization which is the last thing they want if they are planning to run a successful government in Afghanistan. Thus it is quite possible that they would be more focused on running the Afghanistan govt and getting involved in Kashmir would be the last thing they want at this stage.
Since the Taliban has come in power in Afghanistan, Pakistan has shown keen interest in working hand in hand with Taliban. It is evident by the news reports that Pakistan has sent in not only arms and ammunition, but also its armed forces in Afghanistan to support the Talibani fight in the Panjshir valley. This support by Pakistan has its own ulterior motive to create a brotherly relationship with Taliban forces which in return would support the proxy war that the Pakistani intelligence forces are supporting in Kashmir. Pakistan has already been grey listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) for its covert support for international terrorism, so any more such activities in which they support Taliban for creating unrest in Kashmir would put them under serious financial sanctions from the world. This would seriously affect the already weak economy of Pakistan. However, Pakistan will try to use the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan to send insurgents to Kashmir. According to many intelligence reports, hundreds of Pakistani terrorists of LeT, JeM and other terror outfits are fighting along with Taliban. After the fight of Taliban in Northern Afghanistan is over, they will join hands to fight the war in Kashmir which is matter of concern for the Indian government.
The Kashmir valley of today is not what it was in 1989, the valley has beefed up its internal security. The surveillance grid along the LoC has increased vastly with multiple camera systems, smart fence, night vision devices and drones. This surveillance system was not as effective in the past as its now. Also the Intelligence grid has increased vastly due to the cohesive functioning of various organizations in the valley. After the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, the state has come under as a union territory and is presently under the central government. Another important change between 1989 and now is the increasing fatigue felt by the people living endlessly under the shadow of the guns. The New Kashmir wants tourism and business to flourish in Kashmir. The geographical distance between Afghanistan and India, the vast intelligence network, the tight surveillance grid network and the robust security at the LoC will make it difficult for the foreign terrorist groups to infiltrate in Kashmir however, it is not impossible. The security forces are far more than ready to tackle any such situation and annihilating anyone who tries to cross LoC. Also the individuals with any ill intention of creating unrest in the valley will be eliminated by the forces within 2 to 3 days. The consequences of any such attempt to create unrest in valley would be detrimental for the image of Pakistan and Afghanistan, as the same would be blown up internationally and it would have serious implications on the already grey listed (FATF) Pakistan and the new born Taliban-Afghan.
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