situation post abrogation of article 370
Eleven civilians killed in Kashmir within two weeks mark a downward turn in the security situation in the Kashmir Valley. Innocent civilians, journalists, politicians and poor vendors from other states have been brutally targeted. Kashmiri Pundits, Sikh minorities &non locals have been specifically targeted in the recent past with an intention to create a pseudo situation of communal divide, unrest and instill fear among non local populace of the valley. These gruesome acts of violence have been owned by a terror group called- ‘The Resistance Front’, believed to be a shadow organization of Pakistan based Let. The above incidents have raised a plethora of questions amongst the minds of the citizens ranging from ‘The future of the valley?’, ‘The effectiveness of security and intelligence agencies?’, ‘The growing influence of our adversary in valley’ and ‘The takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban and its implications for India’.
The situation of communal violence, terrorism and ethnic cleansing is not uncommon in the Kashmir valley. The roots of these issues date back more than seventy years when India got independence. The partition of India gave birth to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India after Maharaja Harri Singh signed the Instrument of Accession. This was unacceptable to Pakistan and she resorted to infiltration of ashlars into the state of J&K. What followed was the detrimental war of 1947-48. Subsequently Pakistan waged two more wars against India in the year 1965 and 1971with the same modes operand. Although all these wars were won by India, but it created huge turmoil and degradation of peace in the valley. With three defeats, Pakistan learnt a bitter lesson that it won’t be able to win Kashmir in a conventional war against India, so it adopted a strategy of ‘Bleed Through a Thousand Cuts’. Through this strategy it would wage a proxy war against India in Kashmir by means of infiltrating hardliner terrorists, acts of communal violence and ethnic cleansing.
The disintegration of USSR and capture of Afghanistan by Taliban in the 1980s gave further momentum to this strategy of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. The infiltration, instability and acts of violence were at a record high at this time. Since the 1980s, Pakistan-sponsored terrorism began plaguing normal life in the Kashmir valley. Between 1988 and 2000, the Pakistan’s ISI sponsored proxy war in J&K cost approximately 26,266 lives, out of which 3,250 (13 percent) were security forces, 12,396 (47 percent) were terrorists and 10,310 (40 percent) were civilians1. In the year 1999,Kargil conflict brewed up which further deteriorated the situation. Since then terrorism has been treading on a sinusoidal wave curve in the valley. The main aim of inflicting terror in Kashmir by Pakistan is to internationalize the issue of Kashmir. Our adversary wants to project to the world that the Kashmiri population and particularly the youth has been oppressed by the Indian regime and they are revolting by means of violence and attacks and they seek freedom from India. The Indian stance on the Kashmir issue is that it is solely an internal matter and it should be resolved within the country by means of dialogue, development and empowerment and no external intervention are solicited from any external agency or state
Post the abrogation of article 370 in 2019, the terrorism, stone pelting, communal violence and targeted killings were on a downward trend in the Kashmir valley. There washuge deployment of the Paramilitary forces and the security situationwas largely under control. With the passage of time, the internet and cellular services (2G) were resumed and finally in mid 2021, 4G services were also brought on track. There were no reports of stone pelting or terror activities in the valley past these developments. This suggested that the valley was embracing the political development and the youth considered it as a welcome change.
The couple of years saw a landmark improvement in the ecosystem of the Kashmir valley. The Indian Army had drastically stepped-up the nonadministrative and empowerment drives for women. Activities ranging from local sports tournaments, tour of school children to tourist destinations and metro cities, educational and career counseling drives, empowerment of females of border villages by setting up of stitching centers & local bakeries, construction of urinals in the interior villages and plethora of other constructive nation building activities were undertaken by the Army. These initiatives not only catapulted normalcy in Kashmir but also helped the local populace to gain trust over the Army and the Administration.Peaceful BDC elections in December 2020 were indicative of the changing dynamics in the valley. Huge number of people stepped forward and cast their votes. This not only proved the fact that people were no longer afraid to move out, but also enshrined the spirit of democracy. Post the declaration of results, talks of the further delimitation process and granting of statehood to Kashmir was on the cards.
After the second COVID-19 wave subsided, the tourism in the Union Territory of Kashmir increased substantially and it appeared that normalcy had once again returned to the valley. The recent news of huge investment plans of Dubai in Kashmir and the subsequent signing of an MOU between India and UAE2 once again validated the fact that the international community, including the Islamic world has welcomed the worthwhile change in Kashmir with open arms.
The dramatic withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the lightening Luftwaffe maneuver of Taliban over Afghanistan leading to its capture in the month of August have taken the international community and India by surprise. These developments are worrisome and have huge implications for India.During the hasty withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan they left behind modern weaponry/equipment worth millions. According to an estimate more than six lakh small arms like M-16 assault rifles, machine guns, pistols, grenade launchers and RPGs were left behind. Apart from this, approximately 1,62,000 pieces of communication equipment and drones were also abandoned by the US forces3 in Afghanistan military bases, now under the control of Taliban. The Taliban after taking over Afghanistan seized this stockpile of sophisticated weapons and equipment and it is needless to say that some of this equipment will eventually land in the hands of Pak sponsored terrorist organizations trying to wage proxy war in Kashmir.According to defense think tanks, this revamped structure of terror with new weapons, equipment and most importantly the battle hardened terrorists who fought shoulder to shoulder with Taliban would be directed by ISI into Kashmir by increased number of infiltration attempts and will try to wreak havoc on innocent people and security establishments in the valley.
These predictions of increased unrest in the future have already begun to come true. There has been a drastic increase in the infiltration attempts from the Line of Control. The recent killings of eleven innocent non local civilians further validate the above estimates. According to the intelligence agencies these acts of violence against innocent civilians have been carried out on the explicit directions of ISI. This is yet another reminder of the pathological hatred and transnational radical Islamism inspired desperate killings. Makhanlal Bindroo, a prominent Kashmiri PAndit Chemist, who decided to stay put through the violence of the 1990s regarded as role-model by the displaced community, was gunned down followed by other victims on 2nd October 2021. The innocent Sikh Principal and a Kashmiri Pandit who had returned to the valley after taking up jobs under Govt special job package for migrant Pandits, were also segregated and cold heatedly knocked out. Subsequently non local poor vendors from Bihar were targeted and murdered. This so called‘Ethnic cleansing’ of valley by Islamist terrorists is occurring from a coon’s age.
The Kashmiri Pandits and minority communities migrated in large numbers following the violence of 1990s. After 1994, attacks on minorities became episodic with periodical outrages. With the passage of time, the security situation in the valley was on an upward turn with the normalizing of situation and Kashmiri Pandits and minorities returning to the valley in limited numbers. These recent events have again instilled fear in the minorities and they are again fleeing back to their native places. This wave of violence is taking place against the backdrop of an upward trend in tourist inflow in the valley and the Centre’s push to promote a barrage of development schemes.
It is crystal clear that Pakistan and Afghanistan together, are a breeding ground for terrorists. With the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, this new Taliban territory will serve as a safe haven and seminary for Pakistan sponsored proxy war on India. It is a well known fact that terror organizations like Let, JeM, HM have strong relations with Taliban. Now with the induction of Haqqanis, in the newly formed Taliban Government who are well known for their support for Pakistan, it can be asserted that Pakistan is all set to realize their strategic gains like the Kashmir issue through this alliance. The Pakistani Jihadi groups who have fought with Taliban and are now bellicose and well trained would be proactively infiltrated through the Line of Control into Kashmir. This would not only give the dying insurgency a rebirth, but would also reestablish the supremacy of the ISI in Pakistan. In order to avert such events from transpiring, India must adopt certain proactive measures to combat terrorism and promote development in Kashmir. Some of these have been discussed below.
The need of the hour is to enhance the synergy between the intelligence agencies of the Army, JKP, IB and RAW. These Intelligence agencies working in the valley need to function cohesively with a common aim. Joint intelligence Cells if established, can prove to be a great force multiplier. These Cells will facilitate sharing of real time information with the ground forces. A database encompassing the information of known separatists, terrorists, protestors, stone peters and sympathizers need to be created for better corroboration and sharing of information.The security forces like Army, JKP and CAPF must carry out joint operations in order to preempt the inimical personals and prevent escalation of incidents. Synergized joint teams of the security agencies with best practices of each acting on definite intelligence would prove to be a highly efficient and potent force.
It is said that the social and political abundance of common man is effective governance because good governance and policies have the power to transform and touch the lives of the common people. In order to develop an effective mechanism in the valley, certain pivotal steps pivotal recommended to be put into action are discussed below.A comprehensive legal framework that is defended and enforced by an impartial and competent judicial system needs to be put into action. This should be augmented with an e-governance framework that is accountable and open to all with real-time file tracking facility. A transparent executive decision-making apparatus coupled with capable, efficient and people-friendly bureaucracy is the need of the hour. A strong, educated and aware civil society is extremely important for healthy growth of bureaucracy in the UT1.
Inclusion of local Kashmiris in the mainstream and decentralization of power to the administration and panchayats will lead to enhanced grassroot participation and improvement in local infrastructure at a swift pace. Promotion of tolerance and creation of space for Kashmiriyat will uplift the new generation of young leaders who seek dignity and peace for their people. Increased tolerance and kashmiriyat will institute willingness to talk to people of J&K especially those who choose the path of violence1.The democracy should be further strengthened by elections at all prescribed levels, encouraging open debate, smooth delimitation process and subsequently granting of statehood to Kashmir.
Development, Employment and Diversification are all interrelated to each other. With the development of Kashmir valley, new investments and industries will be attracted. With these developments, range of possible alternatives of employment will roll in and more employment avenues will attract more people from outside Kashmir which will lead to diversification of Kashmir’s demography.
All these changes will divert the attention of the youth of valley from terror towards constructive endeavors. This will bring prosperity in the lives of middle and lower class people and picking up of arms would be demolished eventually. In order to accelerate development, employment and diversification of the valley, there is a need to take some basic steps. These steps have been enumerated below :-
Power generation should be made a key priority because Kashmir has a huge hydelpower production potential, thanks to the endless number of perennial streams and rivers originating from the high rise mountains Accelerating economic development, granting of more funds from Center for developmental projects, enhanced attempts at increasing the Foreign Direct Investment in Kashmir, good governance and improved services will instill a positive environment for development1, increased employment avenues and ultimately improved happiness quotient in Kashmir.More emphasis needs to be given to the primary and vocational education, empowerment of women and girl child which will lead to the enlivening of state civil services including the judicial profession.The state’s Human Rights Commission needs to be bolstered and more concerted efforts by government for rehabilitation of Kashmiri Pandits will lead to better demographic diversification of Kashmir.
In his recent visit to the J&K in October, the minister of home Affairs, Shir Amit Shah mentioned in one of his speeches that White Collar Terrorism is the backbone of terrorist activities in Kashmir and needs to be eliminated in order to annihilate terrorism in Kashmir completely. White Collar Terrorists are those sympathizers or underground workers who are present at influential positions like government Jobs, businessmen of high repute, and people with wealth. Usually their kids study abroad and they are the ones who support and fund the terror activities indirectly. These people are in constant contact with Pakistan and ISI and implement their directions in the valley. Therefore elimination of such sleeper cells is of utmost importance.
Modern day challenges require modern day solutions therefore technology can be a better force multiplier in combating the Kashmir issue. Facial Recognition software that use artificial intelligence (AI) are being employed worldwide by governments for defense use and riot control measures. USA, China and Israel have pioneered this technology. This technology can be a complete game changer if employed in Kashmir. We need to create a detailed database of each and every ind residing in Kashmir. This, in conjunction with the database of history sheet holders (Terrorists, stone peters, OGWs, sympathizers, sources and separatists) and facial recognition software will enable the security forces and intelligence agencies to identify the culprits in a faster way. The facial recognition software will also be instrumental in identifying the leaders and instigators in an internal security situation (stone pelting, mob violence) and faster passage of information to ground forces.
With the recent developments in Afghanistan, there is an increased threat to Kashmir. Pakistan and ISI would assay to give rebirth to the dying insurgency in Kashmir by infiltrating battle-hardened fighters into Kashmir. Therefore it is in the best interests of India if If this capricious situation remains localized in Afghanistan, Pakistan will not be able to use the Taliban fighters to wage state sponsored proxy war in Kashmir. If the recent inclusion of Pakistan supporting Haqqanis in the new Afghan Government is not accepted by Taliban, this will lead to an unstable Afghan Government. If the Northern Alliance grows in status and power and threatens Taliban’s claim over Afghanistan, this would lead to increased turmoil in Afghanistan, unstable Pak- Afghan border and would ultimately require larger commitment of Pakistani and ISIS resources on the Pak- Afghan border and in Afghanistan. In order to better serve its interests, India has the option of aligning with USA or Russia and adopting aggressive policies against Pakistan and Afghanistan should they try to execute their nefarious designs on our soil.
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